PROBABILITY and EVOLUTION

Most people have heard of the mathematician Bertrand Russel’s suggested analogy to demonstrate how evolution operates. He proposed that if a million chimpanzees work to type randomly on a million typewriters for a million years there would be a good chance one of them would produce one of Shakespeare’s classics. Have you ever given that a little thought? Consider –

A million chimps (I’ll use the notation 10^6 as 10 to the sixth power ) typing randomly on a million typewriters.

A novel would be a pretty big challenge, so let’s just see if they can type the first verse of genesis:

IN THE BEGINNING GOD CREATED THE HEAVENS AND THE EARTH.

By using only capitals this verse contains 14 unique letters plus a space and a period –

— I N T H E B G O D C R A V S . —

If we give the chimps typewriters with only these keys, they have a much better chance of reaching their goal.

Since the verse has 55 print positions this means that the number of possible Permutations that must be typed in order to have an even chance of typing Gen. 1:1 is

16^55   (1.6^55   X   10^55   =   1.68499   X   10^66)

This number is a little messy to work with so let give the chimps another break and reduce the Permutations to

10^66 (that is a “1” followed by 66 zeros)

Let’s also say that the chimps are as fast as a good Secretary and can type (randomly, of course) 120 words/minute. This is 2 words/Second and since the average word has 5 characters then the chimps will be typing 10 characters/SEC. Not only that, but as soon as they’ve typed their first 55 characters, they’ll then be creating 10 new PERM./SEC.

Since you’ve got a million chimps, each creating 10 PERM./SEC., this means they’re creating –

10^6   X   10   =   10^7 PERM./SEC.

Ok, so that means that to have an even chance of hitting gen. 1:1, they’ll need –

10^66 PERM.
———————-              =            10^59 SEC
10^7 PERM./SEC.

That’s kind of big so let’s convert to years.

One year has 60   X   60   X   24   X   365 SEC.   =   31,536,000 SEC./YR.

We’ll give your chimps another break and round up to make calculations easier. (they can create more PERM./YR. This way.)

we’ll say 1 year = 100,000,000 SEC   =   10^8 SEC/YR

So the number of years to break even is-

10^59 SEC
——————                    =               10^51 years
10^8 SEC/YR

Well, since the accepted age of the universe is only 10^10 years, I think we better put some more chimps to work.

Let’s put a billion chimps (10^9) to work. And, we’ll hire faster ones that can type, oh, about 12000 words/min.

That’s 1000 characters/SEC   =   10^3 PERM/SEC

That’s 10^9   X   10^3   =   10^12 PERM/SEC

Ok, so now to have an even chance of producing Gen. 1:1, they’ll need –

10^66 PERM.
———————            =         10^54 SEC.
10^12 PERM./SEC.               —————–        =         10^46 years
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .     10^8 SEC/YR

Looks like we’re going to need more and faster chimps.

How about if we put 1 chimp on every square foot of the earth’s surface
(we’ll assume that the oceans have been paved over). How many square feet will that be?

Surface area of a sphere   =   pi   X   r^2   X   4

= 3.14   X   (7800 miles / 2   X   5280 ft/mile)^2   X   4

= 3.14    X   4.23   X   10^14   X   4

= 5.3   X   10^15 sq. Ft.

We’ll round up to get more chimps to work and say that the number of square feet = 10^16 sq.ft   =   10^16 chimps

Also, we’ll make them typing maniacs and say they can type a billion characters/SEC. This gives us

10^16   X   10^9   =   10^25 PERM/SEC

So 10^66 PERM.
——————-            =           10^41 SEC
10^25 PERM/SEC                 —————               =                   10^33 years
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  10^8 SEC/YR

I don’t know, we’ve quite a way to go. How about this –

Instead of one chimp on each square foot of earth we’ll stack them up. (we’ll assume that it doesn’t affect their typing to have another chimp on their shoulders.) In fact we’ll stack a billion chimps on each sq. Ft. Of the surface of the earth.

this will take down the time to only – 10^24 years.

So there you go, the chimps have an even shot at typing the first verse of Genesis and it will only take them 100,000,000,000,000 times the accepted age of the universe. Unfortunately, each stack of chimps (each 3 feet tall) would reach out twice the distance to the moon so we would have to remove it before doing this experiment to avoid an unpleasant meeting between chimps and same.

Now, rumor has it that scientists actually tried to perform this experiment. Of course, it was not practical to get a million chimps for a million years so they settled for a thousand chimps trained to randomly punch keys for a few hours each day for a year. Obviously, they didn’t get any works of Shakespeare or even Gen 1:1. They did get three copies of Valley of the Dolls and one near hit with the character string “to be or not to be, that is the burgelmitz.”

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STUDENT DEMONSTRATIONS –

Liberals think they have found the key to taking away our 2nd Amendment rights. They have harnessed the power of some “useful fools” to push politicians to do their bidding. And, of course, the liberal media is only too happy to lend a hand. But there should be no confusion out there. This is only about taking away gun rights – it has absolutely NOTHING to do with school safety.

If it was really about protecting our students you might be tempted to examine existing methods of keeping students safe. No system has performed better in the most dangerous environment than the Israeli policy. Yet any mention of implementing any portion of the Israeli approach brings howls of denial by every liberal entity from the Democratic Party to the teachers’ unions. Why? As I said it’s not about safety – it’s about taking guns.

Well, I’ve got a news flash for you. We have excluded God from our schools and our culture and now you are seeing the consequence. Get used to it. IT WILL GET WORSE.

We have sown the wind and we will now reap the whirlwind.

OBLIVION THIS WAY COMES

“I don’t have a dog in this fight.” This is really a great phrase. It says it all. My Dad died at 56 of a heart attack, so I never thought I’d make it to even 65. And yet I sit here at age 72. By my math I figure I’m on borrowed time.
But as I consider you ‘youngsters’ out there I must ask, “How stupid can you be?” If you have doubted in the least that the swamp President Trump talked about actually exists, just look at what happened last night. Republicans and Democrats got together and agreed on a budget which is going to do nothing less than push us closer to the brink of oblivion.
Do any of you remember what happened in Greece? They were pushed over the brink screaming and squealing for the government handouts that sent them over that brink. Greece was fortunate; their economy was small enough to be saved by their European neighbors. When we go over the edge there will be only oblivion because we are too big to save.
Can it be that you all are too stupid to see that ‘brink’ toward which we are rushing? Are you saying, “Oh, he doesn’t know what he’s talking about? It’s not that big of a problem. We’ve got plenty of time.” I have no grandchildren and my time is limited. But if you have grandchildren or you are young with children you will be responsible for their doom if you do not take a stand against this continuing deficit spending. YOU! Not Chuck Schumer or Paul Ryan. YOU! They will only do what you allow them to do. They are the swamp. And you are their enablers.
The thought does cross my mind, “Why did I just waste 20 minutes composing this rant, this screed – I don’t have a dog in this fight?” How about you?

STEPINAPILEOFPOOPUS

OK, ol’ George Stepinapileofpoopus is up to his old tricks. In his efforts to help the Democrats (with ABC’s blessing) he was in full attack mode against the “Memo” yesterday. To open the show he “interviewed” Adam Schiff, the chief Dem on the ‘Trump Collusion Committee. Now, Adam is a lying scumbag right from the start. Several times prior to James Comey’s public appearance before the committee, reporters asked him if Trump was under investigation. Every time he said he did not know. But when Comey testified publicly he said that he had informed the committee several times that Trump was not under investigation. So every time Schiff was asked if he knew he did, in fact, know that Trump was not under investigation, but lied and said he did not know. Anyway, I’m a little hesitant to say that George “interviewed” Schiff. A better description would be to say that George tossed him some softballs and stood back while Schiff made short speeches.

Then George “interviewed” Will Hurd, a GOP member of the same committee. I hesitate, also, to call this an “interview.” What happened was that George would ask a question, after which I counted at least 10 times he interrupted Hurd’s attempt to answer. Not only did he interrupt, but several of the interruptions were not just other questions. Several of the interruptions were to argue with Hurd about his partially given answer. There’s nothing really new in this behavior. In fact, it is pretty much standard fare for George, his occasional stand in, Martha Rabbits and for that matter, NBC’s Chuck Toad on Meet the Press.

Then George brought in his “round table.” The round table consisted of (counting George) 4 ‘Trump haters,’ 1 GOP ‘never Trumper’ and 1 former member of Trump’s team. So it was 5 to 1. I’ll leave you to gaze into your crystal ball and figure out how that conversation went.

TRUE COLORS

“Well, it’s Tommy this and Tommy that
and chuck ‘im out, the brute.
But it’s Tommy come and save us
when the guns begin to shoot.”
 
Looking down on soldiers is nothing new. The left were not even the sole originators of the attitude. But WW1 and especially WW2 gave most Americans a well deserved respect for the military. By the time of the Viet Nam war, however, the left had begun a process of rewriting the narrative of American History. In that narrative the military is the terrorist arm of the US government. The vile treatment of the military during the Viet Nam war was strictly a tactic of the left. Those of us on the right should feel a certain degree of shame because most of us did not stand up to support the military. I include myself in that shame.
 
Since the end of the Viet Nam war most Americans, probably as a result of the residual feeling of respect by the remaining WW2 generation, have had an increasing recognition of the value of the military. The left has found itself in an uncomfortable corner. Continued vilification of the military could cost the left votes from a public increasingly respectful of the military. So the left has submerged its hatred of the military and pretended to have the same respect as the general public. But, like the scorpion on the back of the fox in the middle of the river, they just can’t help being themselves.
 
Hillary’s hatred of the military is well documented, but not generally known thanks to the cover given her by the lamestream media. And recently, the left’s true feelings have been showing their ugly disdain for the military in the occasional illustrative news story. Fox News just posted the story of a California high school teacher named Salcido bashing U.S. military men and women. He characterized recruiters as “pimps” and our soldiers as the “lowest of the low.” And worse than that. Additionally, the left has been using the same sort of characterizations in their rants against the police recently.. The left just can’t hold back . Their true feelings must eventually come out. BTW, make no mistake – Antifa (so-called ‘Antifasciats) are, in fact, the fascists and fascists are leftists. As is BLM.

ONE MAN’S DREAM

Martin Luther King Junior was born on this day in 1929. He would be only 88 if he were still alive. For some reason it seems like he would be much older. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the man whose leadership of the civil rights movement had a major impact on life in the United States and whose death had repercussions that are still with us today had a ‘dream’ that ended for him personally a full 48 years ago.

What has happened to his ‘dream’ in those 48 years seems to me tragic. One of the sentences which is often quoted from his “I have a Dream” speech is, “I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.” It is a good sentence to quote because it truly characterizes the whole speech. But if you read the whole speech you will see that most of those who have assumed the mantel of the civil rights movement have betrayed King’s ‘Dream.’ Do not believe me. King’s speech is available on any number of websites in its entirety. Take a few minutes to read it. And, as you read it, ask yourself how today’s leaders of the civil rights movement measure up to the standards set forth in King’s speech. Then ask yourself how you measure up.